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Bernard English

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Monday, October 8, 2007

The Essence of Group Conflict

Some highlights from the article "The Essence of Group Conflict" by Julie J. Rehmeyer based on research by Yaneer Bar-Yam and colleagues at the New England Complex Systems Institute in Cambridge, Mass.

  1. The study predicts ethnic violence with remarkable accuracy using only one factor: the geographical distribution of the groups.
  2. It's when the groups are somewhat separated and the boundaries are poorly defined that trouble is almost inevitable.
  3. Their predictions had a 90 percent correlation with news reports of actual regions of conflict during the war in Yugoslavia. For India, the correlation was even higher, 99.8 percent.
  4. The researchers say the results suggest that policymakers can address the potential for ethnic violence by either encouraging mixing or developing clear boundaries.
  5. The researchers point to Singapore as a successful example of the former approach. Regulations there specify that ethnicities must be mixed in public housing blocks, where 84 percent of residents live.

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